I promised something on The Interpretation of Murder

Eoin Purcell

And here it is

I was trying to figure out how to make this discussion relevant, having already mentioned here that i would kick it off. The reason I felt I should touch on it was that way back in 2006 I had read this article in the Wall Street Journal. The bulk of the article highlights the practice of paying huge advance to debut authors. The case appearing to be that it’s a hiding to nothing:

The following week, the book dropped to No. 30 on the New York Times list. Any lingering hopes of achieving breakthrough sales were finished. Nielsen BookScan, which says it tracks about 70% of retail book sales, says “Murder” sold 12,400 copies in its first 19 days. Barnes & Noble alone sold nearly 15,000 copies of “The Thirteenth Tale” in only five days.

Holt invested $1.3 million in buying and marketing the book, a sum that doesn’t include the cost of manufacturing. It will need to sell at least 150,000 hardcover copies to recoup its investment. Barring an unforeseen spike, it will be lucky to get to half that. Next year, Holt hopes to benefit from paperback sales. And there’s always the chance a movie might get made.

Still, the book never caught fire and could leave Holt in the red. What happened? A timing issue, say several rival publishers. Holt may have erred in promoting its book so heavily six months prior to publication. Booksellers might have been talking about “Murder” during the summer, but they were recommending “The Thirteenth Tale” in early fall. Mr. Sterling disputes that, saying it was imperative to get the industry talking about the book early, given that it was a first-time effort.

Mr. Rubenfeld doesn’t think anything went wrong. His experience touring the country was better than he anticipated. He was surprised at the support he received from booksellers who he says dubbed the book a success. “It might have been a little unrealistic to imagine I could be No. 1 given the fact that there are so many big books this fall, but I remain hopeful.”

Of course with hindsight as it were we know that the book has done fairly exceptionally well over all:
- Right now (subject to rapid and unexpected change) its at 745 in book. Bound to deliver a few sales: Amazon.co.uk Sales Rank: 745 in Books.
- The UK edition has sold close to 1 million copies (Helped by a Richard & Judy pick)
- Headline have committed to Rubenfeld’s follow up.
- It’s in the top five in Ireland.

Which is why this Guardian column, decrying this Wall Street Journal article is so timely. From the WSJ piece:

The costly gamble on the untested Mr. Smith — he received a $1 million U.S. advance for “Child 44″ and a second book, while movie director Ridley Scott bought the film rights for an undisclosed sum — says a lot about the state of the book industry. Like Hollywood, publishers have become addicted to blockbusters that can be turned into lucrative franchises. Grand Central sees in Mr. Smith the potential to be the next David Baldacci, James Patterson or Dan Brown.

Expensive first-time authors can work out. Many questioned the decision of publisher Little, Brown to pay $2.2 million for world rights to Elizabeth Kostova’s debut Dracula novel, “The Historian.” It turned out to be the beach read of 2005, and today there are almost 1.5 million hardcovers in print.

But not all such bets are as successful. HarperCollins paid $1 million for Vikram Chandra’s crime novel “Sacred Games,” which it published in January. The publisher estimates the hardcover sales at about 60,000 so far, which means it will need a strong paperback performance to earn back the advance.

And here is the riposte from Sarah Weinman in the Guardian:

And while the seven-figure publishing advance may be statistically rare, it is nevertheless far from unusual – or even new. One has to go back 30 years to find what seems to be the first instance of that eye-popping number: Martin Cruz Smith’s Gorky Park. Hindsight makes Ballantine’s advance look like less of a gamble, but in fact the novel had a tortured path to publication (Putnam rejected it for daring to feature a Russian protagonist and it took years for Smith to buy back the rights) and at the time the $1m advance was deemed impossibly risky. In the event, Gorky Park ended up the No 5 bestseller in 1981 and helped revitalise and reshape the crime fiction genre.

Which brings me back to short-term amnesia. Although Child 44 is set in Stalinist Russia in 1953 and revolves around an investigator struggling to find his morality – and a serial child killer – in the midst of state-sponsored oppression, the Journal fails to note the most obvious reason why the book’s buzz is so loud. I first heard about it when an agent and editor with no connection to the novel whatsoever discussed it on their Facebook pages: it’s Gorky Park for the 21st century, taking familiar thriller tropes and setting them against a larger backdrop fraught with greater meanings. Child 44 is ambitious and messy and shows its seams, but Smith’s storytelling risks, by and large, pay off.

All in all I think the moral is: don’t rush to judgement,
Eoin

Q&A: Hol books in depth

Eoin Purcell

An Interview with Hol Art Books publisher, Greg Albers

A little while ago, I spotted Hol Art Books and I was intrigued. The site has been expanded and upgraded and is even more intriguing. So intrigued I thought I’d send Greg Albers (See the bio below culled from his site here), the Publisher an e-mail with some questions by e-mail and see what came of it. The Q&A below is what came of it.

A little about Greg Albers

Greg Albers is the founder, and currently sole employee, of Hol Art Books. Prior to starting Hol, he was the marketing publications manager at the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum. Greg received his degree in English-Creative Writing from Colorado College and later participated in the Summer Publishing Institute at New York University. He has worked as a printer at letterpress and lithography studios, a freelance graphic designer, and for three years in Los Angeles was a retail sales convertee as assistant manager at Pottery Barn. Greg currently lives in Boston with his wife and young son.

1) This is an ambitious project. How many titles do you see Holbooks publishing over the next 3 years or is this something you have targets on?

Though I expect we’ll be lower in the first year (I’m aiming for our first books to come out fall of 2009), I’d like to start by publishing maybe 10 books a season, fall and spring. It’s important financially and for our marketing to build a solid list as quickly as possible, and we may find that if anything 10 is too small a goal. And regardless, according to the model I’ve set up, the number of titles we publish is actually up to the project teams. I can obviously work to build teams more actively and so will have a bigger impact on the end results, but If 25 teams form on their own and want to publish all their books in a single season, it might be a financial stretch for us early on, but I’m going to work hard to make that happen for them.

2) How soon do you expect the first project team to come together? Have you had any applications yet?

No applications yet, though prior to the redesign of the site I just launched last week, it was geared much more to a presentation of the ideas behind our publishing model rather than the building of the teams. Now that I’ve redesigned, I’ll be actively inviting people to participate. I’d like to see a handful of people signed up for various projects within the month, and to see the first complete teams come together a month or two after that.

…and actually, after I wrote this, an interesting potential project book landed in my in-box.

3) Do you think that you will need to adapt the model as you go forward? Is this something that requires a big investment of capital to kick off and if so how are you funding it?

When I worked at the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum, we implemented a new graphic identity for the museum. Rather than launching a complete system of finished products, the brand designers we hired established a very simple set of rules to follow (two variations of a logo, a publication size, two typefaces). Over the years following, it was the job of the museum and its graphic designers to define how those rules actually played out in the real world of exhibition signs, brochures, and guides.

That’s how I look at what I’m doing with Hol, I’m establishing a set of rules (writing about art, projects defined by self-selection first and followed by peer review, small initial print runs) and will let time and participation define how those rules are applied. I have to be confident in those initial rules, because once launched, the system is in many ways out of my control. If teams form and approve a project through peer review that I maybe wouldn’t have on my own, the rules say that I’m still going to publish their book. In the end, I not only expect adaptation, I think I invite it.

As far as capital investment…. You said earlier that this was a ambitious project, I’d say ambitious maybe, but it’s ambition built on small steps and small risks. Rather than investing more in fewer titles and aiming for strong returns, our system is built on investing less in more books and expecting more modest returns from each. This lets us loosen control over the type and number of books published, and also helps us startup the company as a whole.

I’m keeping capital investment in the company minimal as possible as well. In this day and age, you can do a lot at a professional-level at very modest cost, with do-it-yourself services. Frankly, I’d rather invest what money we do have (the company is self-funded so far) directly into the books we publish. In the longterm I’ll definitely be looking for more funding, but don’t know yet how I’ll structure it.

One thought I’ve had is to make book-specific funding an integrated part of the process. Meaning, a funder could invest money to help develop and print a particular book and in return either get back their investment plus a percentage of the book’s earnings, or get more direct acknowledgment on the book as a sponsor or funder. Basically making the funder another member of the team. I don’t know that this would be the case for every title, but might be a good way of dealing with extra ambitious or extra risky books.

4) Last, but not least, the field you have started in is specific and niche. Do you think a similar model might work in trade publishing or is it destined to remain in specialist publishing?

Yes, we’re definitely niche and I think would be regardless of the model we were following. I heard Mike Shatzkin of the Idea Logical Company give a talk at last year’s BEA entitled End of General Trade Publishing Houses that really rang true for me. You can find the whole text of the talk online and it’s well worth the read if you haven’t already.

Part of his argument is that we’re moving from a product centric to an audience centric world, and by being a niche publisher I can serve my audience much better than a general trade publisher would be able to. We can achieve completeness in our category and this will be key to our success. Specific to our model, completeness lets us build a cohesive community of participants; and it means that no matter what specific books the teams choose to publish, we can market and distribute them through the same channels as every book from every other team. In fact if anything, I foresee a time when we’re no longer niche enough and need to spin off a couple different further-specialized publishers within the art field.

So I guess it’s not that our model is destined to remain in specialist publishing, it’s that all publishing is destined to become specialist. That said, I’ll continue watching projects like HarperCollins’ authonomy.com with interest, just in case.

All exceptionally interesting I think you will agree,
Eoin

Planning for 2008

Eoin Purcell

Overambitious

So I foolishly announced that I would lay out a plan for blogging in 2008 in response to Bloglily’s tag. Thinking it over it sure offers a challenge. Such a big challenge and the world being so terribly random and unpredictable* that I think I made a foolish promise. So I need to do something else. If I cannot predict the blogging year, I can at least offer some thoughts on what I see playing a role in my year ahead and about which I will probably be writing a great deal.

1) Digital projects & technology

- In the next few weeks Mercier Press will be launching one of its first major digital efforts. I’m not going to talk too much about it right now but the basic idea will be to capture digital content online and take that into print. It is an experiment for us and I can see the short term element proving to be a successful precursor to a much longer term goal for us.

- What is more, 2008 sees the start of something very exciting for Mercier. We will be launching our first blog to book product. The wonderful Murphy’s brothers from Murphy’s Ice Cream will launch a book that build on their blog Ice Cream Ireland and offers all Irish ice cream lovers what is going to be a very beautiful book. There will be more of these types of books in the future (not just from Mercier) as blogging makes real talent more visible and findable on the web.**

- These are not the only reasons I think this area will be a huge part of my year in 2008. If you have been following the links both on the blog and on my linkblog at Google Reader ***, you will have seen that these issues are looming large in my thoughts. If you fail to be inspired by these I suggest you check out a few of Snowbooks videos on using Onix data to make life easy. that ought to bring the point home forcefully.

- Mercier have just started the process of moving to an integrated system (Using Anko’s Publishing Manager). it will be tricky as so much of our legacy information is in people’s head and not digital systems, but once we have finished the process we will be in a great place to make much better use of all our content.

- And then there is this, e4Books, which will probably be honoured more in the missing of the target than in the achieving it.

2) Books: reading & commissioning

- Ha, I’ll bet you saw that one coming! The To Be read pile is now insane. Though again I’m feeling a little better about that (thanks NTT). I do try. I read a good few books this year but not nearly as many as I had hoped (closer to 60 than the 100 I had planned). Spending too much time online and reading for work perhaps.

- Of course the other aspect of books will be the process of publishing and building the list here at Mercier. 2008 is now more or less to bed and it is time to get cracking on commissioning 2009. It is nice to be in a more relaxed place with this commissioning but I am conscious still that the competition is hotting up in Ireland with the arrival of an Irish based Transworld office. This side will definitely make for an exciting year.

- And while we are on the subject of books, I need to mention that Litlove has just published one, The Best of Tales From The Reading Room (you can buy it here). A collection of her very, very fine essays from her excellent blog: Tales From The Reading Room.

3) Events & Trends: the unpredictable

- Who knows what will happen to prompt a blog post. Sometimes I have been inconsistent in covering topics here and I have no doubt that will continue. One area I know I have yet to really write much on is the effect that the iPhone is having on the world of mobile devices and online reading. Apple’s OS X has taken a lump of market share in this space very rapidly implying firstly that iPhone users browse the web more than the users of other smart phone/mobile computers and also that consumers are not put off by mobile internet they just want it to be user friendly.

- Here is a list of words that I suspect (but with no real level of confidence) that we will see much more about this year: Onix, Community, Digital Publishing, Online Reading, Ebooks, widgets, content, micro-chunking, CS 3, XML. Of them, for publishers I think XML is going to be the big one! But Community will be too. Just check out Authonomy and see what I mean.

So there you go BL. I hope that my lack of planning is up to scratch.
Pleased with the outcome
Eoin

* And my reading of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan is sure not helping me remain confident of my ability to predicate anything reliably, though it is making me much more comfortable with that. More of that soon when I finish the book and process my thoughts.

** Hint! Hint! Authors, start blogging if you don’t already!

*** Who also have a shared items page which I find a it confusing.

The books I’m waiting on in 2008* (fiction)

Eoin Purcell

In which Eoin reveals his desperate fantasy addiction

1) So when I hear that Steph Swainston was writing two new books set in the world of the Castle I was really excited. The first one seems to have changed title from Carniss Keep to Above The Snowline but is due in late November 2008.

2) If you haven’t started reading Steven Erikson yet, start now. This is detailed, realistic and epic yet magical and rooted in fantasy in way that makes Jordan look like an amateur (I say that as a lapsed fan of the late, great and desperately missed author). His latest is Toll of Hounds and is due in June 2008.

2) George RR Martin burst onto the scene for me if not for many others only a few years ago with A Game of Thrones. Now I am anxious to read his latest, which by his own admission he has not finished, in 2008.

4) In confirmation of my enormous nerdiness and fantasy addiction the fourth of my five books in 2008 is book three in Scott Lynch’s Gentlmen Bastards Sequence, The Republic of Thieves.

5) My last choice is not my usual fare but since Scott Pack announced this book some time ago and sent out PDf samples, I have been intrigued. The Equivoque Principle by Darren Craske will definitely be on my shelf some time in 2008.

Waiting and hoping,
Eoin

* Watch out, as with all fiction these books may well slip and arrive in 2009!