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This series has been an exciting and interesting one for me to write and research. The first four parts are the real meat. You can read them one by one:
So what have we learned with this series?
1) Success is a lot more mundane than most people think.
2) 1500-2000 units will put your book in the top 1000 books of that year.
3) The industry is dominated by the forces of UK publishing
4) That Fiction outperforms but is heavily driven by hits (making this Fintan O’Toole article nonsense*)
5) That Average Selling Price makes a real difference
Have I anything new to share?
I’ve three new facts to share today.
– Up to the last Nielsen figures (28/11/2009) the Irish Consumer Market was down approximately 4.52% in Value
– Volume was up 5.42% though
– ASP was down 9.43%
These three facts indicate a number of unsettling features of the Irish book market.
Firstly, price is driving higher volume, but that is at the cost of driving down the ASP. This is surely putting everyone in the chain under extreme pressure.
Secondly, while there are some startling figures for individual books (70K+ for Secret Scripture for instance) as a whole, the Average Sale per Title is down somewhat (if this figure means anything).
Thirdly, Irish publishers are doing A LOT worse than the market as a whole. Not having full data makes this analysis superficial only so treat it with caution, but I estimate that nearly every Irish publisher has suffered a fall in sales much larger than the market fall. This has been driven by the heavy push booksellers are sensibly putting into bestselling titles, making the space tougher for smaller titles.
In short, success however modest, will be even more precarious going forward!
* Also Dan Brown (who O’Toole picks on) has sold, 57193 copies of The Lost Symbol in Ireland so far this year.